fandomsecrets | [ SECRET POST #2978 ]

⌈ Secret Post #2978 ⌋

Warning: Some secrets are NOT worksafe and may contain SPOILERS.

01.

__________________________________________________

02.

__________________________________________________

03.

__________________________________________________

04.

__________________________________________________

05.

__________________________________________________

06.

__________________________________________________

07.

__________________________________________________

08.

__________________________________________________

09.

__________________________________________________

10.

__________________________________________________

11.

__________________________________________________

12.

__________________________________________________

13.

__________________________________________________

14.

__________________________________________________

15.

__________________________________________________

16.

Notes:

Secrets Left to Post: 05 pages, 107 secrets from Secret Submission Post #426.
Secrets Not Posted: [ 0 - broken links ], [ 0 - not!secrets ], [ 0 - not!fandom ], [ 0 - too big ], [ 0 - repeat ].
Current Secret Submissions Post: here.
Suggestions, comments, and concerns should go here.

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

One thing to perhaps bolster a sense of optimism:

Globalization has made war on the scale of WWI or WWII completely unfeasible

We are much too economically interdependent to have war on that scale be profitable.

The US for example was extremely isolationist when the first two World Wars broke out. Nowadays, ALL of our interests our tied up abroad.

China and India are also rising giants, which is diminishing US influence and thus making unilateral policymaking a thing of the past.

The developed global community simply cannot AFFORD to be at each others' throats even if they want to.

Another note to add to yours:

China and India are in the local vicinity of Russia. China and Russia share huge borders, common ideology, and far better diplomatic relationships than they do with the west, both have huge resources.

Your point here implies that China and India would automatically fall in with the west. There's nothing to sugges that would be the case.

No.

But China and India (especially China) cannot afford to be at odds against the US and Europe, economically -- we're huge markets and trade partners for them.

They would sit this out and leave Russia to its fate.

But aren't China and India both large enough that they could very well goo "fuck it, we'll stop exports/imports" and focus on their local economy?

NOOOOOOOOOO

In a few decades, maybe, but they would never be able to do so if a war broke out within the next 5-10 years.

It's just too huge a chunk. For China look at this:

http://www.china-mike.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/us-china-trade-comparison.jpg

The two hugest chunks BY FAR are the US and the EU. Russia barely makes a dent comparatively.

(Sorry if that "no" above looks condescending -- I promise it isn't meant to be. I'm just 99.999999% positive that China would NEVER EVER risk relations with the US or EU for Russia).

Same with India: http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/2/22/1361530914446/India-exports-imports-001.jpg

Russia doesn't even touch the US, let alone the US and EU combined.

I stand educated, then. Thank you for the charts! :o

I'm skeptical of this argument mostly because people made very similar arguments in the past and were proven wrong.

For instance it was asserted before 1914 that the commingling of the industrial systems of France and Germany made it impossible for them to go to war because it would be too unprofitable.

I think there are other reasons it's very unlikely, though - principally the effects of nuclear weapons.

Nukes are definitely a big one.

I think another key point, though, is that (and I promise I'm not trying to be a jingoist asshole in saying this) no country is really on the level of the United States. (I promise I'm not trying to be all MURICA here).

When you look at France, UK, Germany during WWI -- I think you'd agree that they were nations of comparative strength.

When you look at Russia vs. the US (because the US is a huge part of NATO) it's an ENORMOUS gulf that exists.

The US has a military budget of $640 billion. Russia's is $88 billion. The US also has a MUCH, MUCH more deployable military with 10 aircraft carriers (with 2 in reserve) to Russia's 1.

The largest air force in the world is the US Air Force. Know who the second largest is?

The US NAVY.

And in modern wars, the person with aerial control wins.

I'm not saying the US is unstoppable, but the difference in military power makes the situation REMARKABLY different from 1914.

Aircraft are the new wooden battleships (and aircraft carriers have long been known to be nothing more than very large targets that are primarily only suited for peace-time use), obsolete. The winners of the next war will be the person with the most drones and missiles. It is the HMS Dreadnought race all over again. Advances in technology have made all previous military status irrelevant and reset the field.

Ummm...you realize the US HUGELY dominates in terms of drones too right?

http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/print-edition/20111008_FBC721.gif

And the UK had more Dreadnoughts than Kaiser's Germany.

Yes, but not to the point where it's a fucking joke.

Look, I'm not saying this to be an asshole, but the US spends a retarded amount on its military. Like it's almost LITERALLY retarded because you'd have to have some sort of mental deficiency to spend that GODDAMN MUCH on your military.

I think the only advantages that Russia has is its tanks. And even then, its hardware is still decades behind what the US can do.

This simply isn't a matchup between two equal contestants. And I legitimately don't think that Russia wants it to be -- Russia is just looking to maintain its sphere of influence. It doesn't want to go toe to toe with the US. And even if it did, it couldn't.

That's not to say the US wouldn't get hurt (it would, pretty badly too given how poorly Americans tolerate casualties nowadays) but that Russia isn't playing in the same league is not even a question.

[ SECRET POST #2978 ]

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed

Re: 'May you live in interesting times' in-fucking-deed