[ SECRET POST #3489 ]

[case]

⌈ Secret Post #3489 ⌋

Warning: Some secrets are NOT worksafe and may contain SPOILERS.

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Notes:

Secrets Left to Post: 03 pages, 63 secrets from Secret Submission Post #499.
Secrets Not Posted: [ 0 - broken links ], [ 0 - not!secrets ], [ 0 - not!fandom ], [ 0 - too big ], [ 0 - repeat ].
Current Secret Submissions Post: here.
Suggestions, comments, and concerns should go here.

Comments

Re: Confession thread

[(Anonymous)]

My bad. "I believe" moderates are going to vote for Trump. "I think" Brexit is a strong indicator of the populist sentiment sweeping the West.

Re: Confession thread

[(Anonymous)]

Okay, see, those still aren't opinions, but they are actually exactly the kind of evidence I was looking for, so thank you!

I see what you mean on Brexit. I think it's a valid argument. I don't think the situations are precisely analogous.

First, because British and American politics (and society) are just different. So there's a degree of uncertainty between the two. In particular, I think - frankly - political machines in the United States are just much, much, much more competent than their equivalents in Britain, and forced by the different systems of politics to be much more in touch with constituents than British politicians are, making shock insurgent wins like that much less likely.

Second, because the British case was a referendum on an issue, not an election of a person. You didn't have to affirmatively choose to have Boris Johnson run the country if you wanted to vote for Brexit; you do need to affirmatively vote for Trump, and that's a higher bar to clear, I think.

Third, I think the electoral college (and the swing state dynamic it engenders) makes it much more difficult for something like Brexit to succeed - it's a higher barrier because you can't just win a majority of votes, you have to win a majority of states, and the states that could go either way are going to be targeted by really sophisticated electoral operations.

Fourth, I think the relative polling strengths of Brexit and Trump are not necessarily encouraging for Trump.

So those are the three reasons I don't think Brexit is necessarily indicative of what's going to happen in America. But it's certainly possible. Obviously a lot of the concerns are the same and Trump has a real chance.

Re: Confession thread

[(Anonymous)]

Keep telling yourself all that if it makes you feel better.

Re: Confession thread

[(Anonymous)]

I mean, we're going to see in November either way.

Re: Confession thread

[insanenoodlyguy]

Hilary's got a far more competant team and plan, especially in places where Trump literally has no plan. The GOP will only want to spend so much of their own cash without any infrastructure. If antyhing will turn things for him, it will be the current racial unrests in this country, that's what you should have used. Lord knows his VP pick won't win him any favors.